About the National Data

Data

Baseline: 26.6 percent of persons aged 21 years and over reported binge drinking in the past 30 days in 2018

Target: 25.4 percent

Numerator
Number of adults aged 21 years and over who report having 5 or more drinks (for males) or 4 or more drinks (for females) at the same time or within a couple of hours of each other during the past 30 days.
Denominator
Number of adults aged 21 years and over.
Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 33 percent prediction interval.
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Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 33 percent prediction interval was selected because no additional information could be used to assess the trend line, so the target was based on the projection.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Modified, which includes core objectives that are continuing from HP2020 but underwent a change in measurement.
Changes between HP2020 and HP2030
This objective differs from Healthy People 2020 objective SA-14.3 in that objective SA-14.3 tracked binge drinking in the past month among persons aged 18 years and over, while this objective tracks binge drinking in the past month among persons aged 21 years and over.

Footnotes

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Because HP2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.