U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion

Reduce deaths from COPD in adults — RD‑05 Data Methodology and Measurement

On this page:  About the National Data  |  Methodology  |  History

About the National Data

Data

Data Sources:  National Vital Statistics System - Mortality (NVSS-M), CDC/NCHS; Population Estimates, Census

Baseline: 110.0 COPD deaths per 100,000 adults aged 45 years and over occurred in 2018

Target: 107.2 per 100,000

Numerator
Number of COPD deaths (ICD-10 codes: J40-J44, and excludes asthma) among adults aged 45 years and over.
Denominator
Number of adults aged 45 years and over.
Target-setting method
Projection
Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval.
1
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval was selected because no additional information could be used to assess the trend line, so the target was based on the projection.

Methodology

Methodology notes

Deaths due to COPD (ICD 10 codes J40-J44, and excludes asthma).

FOR SINGLE DATA YEARS: Death rates are calculated based on the resident population of the United States for the data year involved. For census years (e.g. 2010), population counts enumerated as of April 1 are used. For all other years, populations estimates as of July 1 are used. Postcensal population estimates are used in rate calculations for years after a census year and match the data year vintage (e.g. July 1, 2011 resident population estimates from Vintage 2011 are used as the denominator for 2011 rates). Intercensal population estimates are used in rate calculations for the years between censuses (e.g. 1991-1999, 2001-2009). Race-specific population estimates for 1991 and later use bridged-race categories.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 with no change in measurement.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.