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U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion

Reduce current cigarette smoking in adults — TU‑02 Data Methodology and Measurement

This objective is a Leading Health Indicator (LHI). Learn about LHIs.

On this page:  About the National Data  |  Methodology  |  History

About the National Data

Data

Data Source:  National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), CDC/NCHS

Baseline: 14.2 percent of adults aged 18 years and over were current cigarette smokers in 2019

Target: 6.1 percent

Numerator
Number of adults aged 18 years and over who have smoked at least 100 cigarettes in lifetime and who now report smoking cigarettes every day or some days.
Denominator
Number of adults aged 18 years and over.
Target-setting method
Projection
Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval.
1
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval was selected because of new initiatives that will occur to prevent initiation of cigarettes and promote cessation of cigarettes.

Methodology

Questions used to obtain the national baseline data

(For additional information, please visit the data source page linked above.)

From the 2019 National Health Interview Survey:

Numerator:
Have you smoked at least 100 cigarettes in your ENTIRE LIFE?
  1. Yes
  2. No
  3. Refused
  4. Don't know
Do you NOW smoke cigarettes every day, some days or not at all?
  1. Every day
  2. Some days
  3. Not at all
  4. Refused
  5. Don't know

Methodology notes

Persons are considered as using cigarettes if they report that they smoked at least 100 cigarettes in their lifetime and now report smoking cigarettes everyday or some days. This indicator uses age-adjustment groups: 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-64, 65+.

Age-adjustment notes

This Indicator uses Age-Adjustment Groups:

  • Total: 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-64, 65+
  • Sex: 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-64, 65+
  • Race/Ethnicity: 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-64, 65+
  • Educational Attainment: 25-34, 35-44, 45-64, 65+
  • Family Income (percent poverty threshold): 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-64, 65+
  • Family Type: 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-64, 65+
  • Country of Birth: 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-64, 65+
  • Disability Status: 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-64, 65+
  • Geographic Location: 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-64, 65+
  • Health Insurance Status: 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-64
  • Marital Status: 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-64, 65+
  • Sexual Orientation: 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-64, 65+

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 with no change in measurement.
Revision History
  • Revised. 

    In 2021, due to the 2019 NHIS redesign, the baseline was revised from 13.9% in 2018 to 14.2% in 2019. The target was revised from 5.0% to 6.1% using the original target setting method.
  • Revised. 

    In 2024, the following categories were recalculated with the use of a newer variable: Never married, American Indian or Alaska Native only, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander only, 2 or more races only, Not Hispanic or Latino American Indian or Alaska Native only, Not Hispanic or Latino Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander only, Not Hispanic or Latino 2 or more races only. Estimates from data year 2022 or earlier may vary slightly from estimates previously reported. The baseline, baseline year and target were not affected.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.